Friday, 25 May 2012

The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

0520 GMT: The headline from the two-day nuclear talks in Baghdad between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) is that the two sides will keep talking. The next round will be in Moscow on 18-19 June.

Later today, we will have a special analysis. For now, we re-post our immediate assessment from Thursday night, posted just after the statement by Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1:

1. Ashton tipped off the large gap between the 5+1 Powers and Iran on approach and proposals. The US and Europe effectively said, "We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment." Iran said at the same time, "Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want."

2. This gap was so wide that the Iranians were on the point of walking away from the talks on Wednesday night. Ashton's emergency session with Iran's Saeed Jalili --- almost two hours --- plus intervention from China and Russia probably averted that breakdown.

3. Moscow as a location for the next talks is a concession to Iran for continuing to talk. So is the date --- the discussions come two weeks before the European Union is scheduled to ban imports of Iranian oil.

4. But Moscow is now "make or break". Either the US and Europe find enough to reverse the 1 July ban on Iranian oil, or the negotiations will break down with Iran's declaration that the West will accept nothing less than its capitulation.

from EA WorldView: EA Iran

Posted via email from lissping