0530 GMT: After days of speculation in the media over what might and might not occur, discussions between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) open today in Istanbul, with plans for them to continue through Sunday.
Any predictions can now be set aside for what actually emerges --- although information will be limited and may have to be decoded --- from the negotiating table, but my expectation this morning is of a best-case scenario of talks about further talks.
The Iranians, notably Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi in his carefully-placed words in The Washington Post, have signalled that they will play the discussions "long", waiting for the US and European powers to put forth any proposal and --- in the meantime --- judging if Washington and its allies might accept enrichment of uranium on Iranian soil. Despite all the chatter, fed by US and European officials, about a possible proposal --- initially talking tough that Iran would have to give up enrichment to produce 20% uranium and close its plant at Fordoo, later pointing to a step-by-step deal in which Fordoo would close but Iran could build up its 20% stock to a strictly-defined level --- it is likely that Washington and Co. will not put forth any plan for consideration. There is uncertainty about whether Russia and China will back that plan at this point, especially if Tehran balks, and US scepticism that the Islamic Republic is doing more than "playing for time" will have to be overcome.
Still, there were some positive diplomatic signals on Friday. Iranian State media are playing up a meeting betwen Iran's lead negotiator Saeed Jalili and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, with Davutoğlu saying afterwards, "We will have good news" at the end of the Istanbul meeting. Well-connected US journalist Laura Rozen sent out the message from the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, who also met Jalili, that Tehran "had come to talk seriously". More importantly, she put out this message: "Ashton had an over 3 hr dinner with Iran's Jalili, atmosphere described as good and friendly. Meeting seems to to be exceeding expectations."
Posted via email from lissping
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