0545 GMT: Today's Live Coverage will be dominated by the first round of balloting for the 9th Parliament (Majlis).
First results for Tehran will not appear until Saturday, and declarations for other cities and towns will be made on Sunday. So today's foremost story will be about the turnout, which the regime is declaring will be above 60% --- a figure supported by outlets such as Fars, which has put out the precise figure of 65.5% --- but much lower in the capital. Any figure well below that 60% will be a blow to the regime's legitimacy. Expect, whether or not they correspond to reality, announcements and headlines that the public have turned out in great numbers.
We will soon post a Beginner's Guide to the process, the candidates, and the factions. In the meantime, beware of any analysis that is trumpeting, "The Supreme Leader will win", "The President will lose", "Clerics have triumphed" --- all of which have appeared in the last 72 hours. This process is far too complex for such nice, neat conclusions, and it will take weeks for the political manoeuvres to play out.
What the Supreme Leader is seeking is a "mish-mash" of results --- if no dominant bloc of conservatives and principlists emerges in the next Parliament, then the Majlis is likely to be a weakened force. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to avoid the pressure of impeachment over his final year in office, giving him time to re-arrange and bolster allies, so that weakened Majlis is far from a "lose" for him.
But that is only our initial assessment, and today is only a photo-opportunity occasion in a long, drawn-out political battle.
Posted via email from lissping
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